CASE STUDY

US Drug Manufacturer Achieves Strong Drug Sales During Influenza Outbreak Through Demand and Sales Forecasting

Sep 23, 2016

Business Challenge

Predicting demand for influenza drugs in the future. A leading client in the pharma industry in the US wanted to analyze the influenza drug sale patterns, consumer preferences, major influencers, and predict demand for their drug in the future.

Situation: Reduced sales of influenza drug

The client in the pharma industry had seen a dip in the sales of their influenza drug even during the season of increased influenza cases. The client was looking for analytics for accurate demand prediction and sales forecasting for the drug.

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Solution

Mathematical model describing the propagation of influenza through a local population

We used a mathematical model combined with a research methodology, to identify influencers, understand preferences, and to analyze and predict the demand of the drug. Mathematical model described the propagation of influenza through a local population. We did real-time observations of influenza incidences for the model refinement.

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Impact

Increased drug sale during the next through accurate demand projection

Better visibility on the purchase behavior and influencer analysis on influencers such as store pharmacists, on-call physicians, etc., who are trusted for suggestions on drugs. Based on this we created a predictive model for future outbreaks of influenza and demand variations of the drug. The result was increased sales during the outbreak with proper promotion strategies and focused strategies for influencers.

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