Business Challenge
Set up a sales forecast model for acne drugs.
A leading dermatology drug manufacturer wanted us to analyze sales performance for their acne drugs and set up a sales forecast model.
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Situation
Stagnant acne market and low ROI.
The acne market had been stagnant for over a decade, and they had low visibility due to lack of research and analysis done due to the perception of low ROI on the efforts made for topical treatments and the mainstay of acne therapy.
Solution/Approach
Multivariate time series methods with exponential smoothing & price elasticity analytics.
We did a best-in-class process setup with outlier identification and error testing capability. We built a regressions model on the impact of hormonal and photodynamic therapies and other market events. We used focus group and expert opinions for gathering data which was used for extrapolation and rule-based forecasting. This data was analyzed using multivariate time series methods with exponential smoothing and price elasticity models.
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Impact
Best-in-class forecasting process.
The client received the best-in-class forecasting process incorporating all drivers of sales. Better visibility into sales pipeline and sales cycle/aging analysis was achieved. We also delivered intuitive dashboards for visualization with drill-down capability enabling a better understanding of drivers such as seasonality, micro-/macro-economic factors, promotions, competitor effects, etc.
